Trump’s second-favorite ex-Democrat could hand Trump yet another Georgia defeat on Tuesday

Trump’s second-favorite ex-Democrat could hand Trump yet another Georgia defeat on Tuesday

June 21, 2022 0 By Ellen Novack

And of course because this is a redistricting year, every state on the docket has a brand-new congressional map. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave’s Redistricting App for Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Virginia. Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall. And if you’d like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.

Georgia

Polls close at 7 PM ET.

GA-02 (55-44 Biden): Army veteran Jeremy Hunt outpaced Air Force veteran Chris West 37-30 in the first round to take on veteran Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop in a southwestern Georgia seat that became slightly redder under the new map. Hunt has benefited from $310,000 in support for the runoff from American Values First, a super PAC funded by conservative megadonor Ken Griffin, while West has not received any outside aid. West, though, does have an endorsement from businessman Wayne Johnson, who finished third with 19% and is now suing Fox News for supposedly giving Hunt (whom he’s also suing) an unfair amount of positive coverage.

GA-06 (R) (57-42 Trump): Physician Rich McCormick led former state Ethics Commission Chair Jake Evans 43-23 in the Republican primary for this newly gerrymandered open seat in suburban Atlanta even though Evans had Donald Trump’s endorsement. McCormick, who narrowly lost last cycle’s race in the prior version of the 7th District to Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux, has earned the backing of former state Rep. Meagan Hanson, a defeated rival who took fourth place with 8%. Outside groups have also spent over $1.6 million to help McCormick in the second round, with several spots using Evans’ old writings to portray him as “woke.” Evans, by contrast, has received little comparable help this time around.

GA-10 (R) (61-38 Trump): An ugly runoff is underway in the contest to succeed Rep. Jody Hice, a far-right extremist who gave up this northeastern Georgia seat to unsuccessfully challenge Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in last month’s primary. Trucking company owner Mike Collins managed to edge out former state Rep. Vernon Jones 26-22 in the first round. Jones is a conservative Democrat-turned-Republican who earned Trump’s support after he ended his long-shot campaign for governor to run here instead. (By all indications, Jones is Trump’s second-favorite former Democrat. His favorite ex-Democrat is, of course, himself.)

Collins, who lost the 2014 runoff for this same seat to Hice, has continued to attack Jones—who never represented any part of this district either in the legislature or as the chief executive of DeKalb County—as an outsider. Things have only intensified in the final weeks as Collins has labeled his Black opponent a “radically anti-white racist.” Jones, meanwhile, is arguing he’s the true conservative in the race and that his foe only wants to be in Congress because his late father, Mac Collins, used to serve there. Gov. Brian Kemp, who lives in the 10th, endorsed Collins during the final days of the contest.

GA-SoS (D) (49-49 Biden): State Rep. Bee Nguyen led former state Rep. Dee Dawkins-Haigler 44-19 last month in the race to face Republican Raffensperger, who surprised many observers by winning renomination outright against Trump-backed Hice. Nguyen, who would be the first Asian American elected statewide, has continued to enjoy a wide financial lead for the second round, and she’s also earned an endorsement from gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams. Dawkins-Haigler, though, has argued that party elites are supporting Nguyen because she’s not Black, insisting there is “a race problem within the Democratic Party.”

Virginia

Polls close at 7 PM ET.

VA-02 (R) (50-48 Biden): Four Republicans are challenging Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in a Virginia Beach-based seat where, under the new court-drawn map, Joe Biden’s margin of victory was halved from 51-47 to just 50-48.

National Republicans, including the deep-pocketed Congressional Leadership Fund, have consolidated behind state Sen. Jen Kiggans, who has enjoyed a wide financial lead over her intraparty rivals. Kiggans’ allies in May released a survey showing her decisively beating Air Force veteran Tommy Altman 43-9, with 8% going to Jarome Bell, a Big Lie fanatic who took a distant third in the 2020 primary for this seat. However, those numbers haven’t kept Democrats—who believe that Bell would be easier for Luria to defeat—from launching an ad campaign designed to help him capture the GOP nod.

VA-07 (R) (52-46 Biden): Redistricting made Democratic Rep. ​​Abigail Spanberger’s seat considerably bluer by dramatically transforming it from a district anchored in the Richmond suburbs seat to one largely based in Northern Virginia’s Prince William County. However, her six Republican rivals are still betting she’s vulnerable, though there’s no obvious frontrunner in the GOP’s nominating contest, which hasn’t attracted much outside spending.

One familiar name is state Sen. Bryce Reeves, a politician from a rural part of the district who narrowly lost a nasty 2017 primary for lieutenant governor and has the NRA’s endorsement for his new campaign. Another prominent elected official is Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, who quickly raised a credible amount of money after launching her campaign early this year. Meanwhile, Green Beret veteran Derrick Anderson, who has also fundraised fairly well, has positioned himself as a political outsider.

The field also features two other officeholders, Stafford County Board of Supervisor Chair Crystal Vanuch and Spotsylvania County Supervisor David Ross, but neither spent much money in the leadup to the primary. Former teacher Gina Ciarcia, who has generated little attention, rounds out the field.

Alabama

Polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time.

AL-Sen (R) (62-37 Trump): Former Business Council of Alabama head Katie Britt finished the first round with a wide 45-29 advantage over Rep. Mo Brooks, a far-right politician whom Trump unceremoniously unendorsed in March, and she goes into Election Day as the frontrunner. Britt not only retains the support of her old boss, retiring Sen. Richard Shelby, but she also earned Trump’s backing less than a year after he disparaged her as “not in any way qualified” for the office. Britt has also posted double-digit leads in the polls, while her allies have outspent Brooks’ supporters by almost a 10-to-1 margin.

AL-05 (R) (62-35 Trump): Madison County Commissioner Dale Strong outpaced former Department of Defense official Casey Wardynski 45-23 in the May primary to replace Senate candidate Brooks, and a recent poll gave him a 46-31 edge in this northern Alabama constituency. Wardynski’s allies at the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus aren’t giving up, though: They’ve dumped $200,000 into runoff messaging portraying Strong as a politician who “caved to the woke liberals” and “shunned President Trump.”

Washington, D.C.

Polls close at 8 PM ET.

Washington D.C. Mayor (D) (92-5 Biden): Incumbent Muriel Bowser faces three intraparty opponents in her bid for a third term as mayor in a contest where it takes just a plurality to win the all-important Democratic nomination. Bowser, many political observers agree, doesn’t have a deep base of support after almost eight years in office, but she’s also largely avoided alienating voters.

Bowser’s main foe looks like Councilmember Robert White, a prominent left-wing critic who represents the entire District of Columbia in an at-large seat. White has earned endorsements from two influential unionsthe Washington Teachers’ Union and AFSCME—and he released an internal poll late in the contest showing him trailing just 41-37. Bowser, though, went into the final weeks of the race with a huge financial lead, and she’s used it to run ads arguing that White “can’t be trusted.”

Another notable contender is Councilmember Trayon White, who is not related to Robert White. This contender made national news in 2018 with his antisemitic comments and disastrous trip to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, but he’s remained popular in his home base in the Anacostia area. Robert White’s poll showed Trayon White taking just 6%, though his presence could allow Bowser to win renomination with just a plurality. The final candidate is James Butler, who took 10% against Bowser during her uneventful 2018 primary and has attracted little attention.

Arkansas

Polls close at 8:30 PM ET/7:30 PM local time, though there won’t be much on the ballot because most races were decided in the first round. Runoffs will take place only on the Republican side in three state legislative seats, while five counties will also hold elections in local contests.



[